Tsy voalaza tamin’ny tatitra ofisialy ny faritra nisy ireo tranga sasany. Misy fiantraikany amin’ny fahamarinan’ny tarehimarika sasany aseho etsy ambany ireo tsy fahampiam-baovao ireo
Through 2021-01-29, Madagascar has officially registered 19065 cases and 281 deaths.
Using data on deaths that occurred and the number of cases, we can estimate the case fatality ratio (CFR). The CFR is defined as the proportion of confirmed COVID-19 deaths over the number of confirmed COVID19 cases.
The CFR can help us understand the severity of the disease in confirmed cases however it is not the same as the risk of death for an infected person and thus does not represent the probability of dying if an individual is infected by COVID-19.
In addition, the final clinical outcome of most of the reported cases is unknown. Therefore the tally of deaths over the confirmed cases might underestimate the true case fatality ratio.
14-Okt-2020: Nanomboka androany dia tsy nanome tatitra isan’andro intsony ny Governemanta Malagasy. Misolo ho famintinana isan’kerinandro ny vaovao momban’ny COVID-19.
Nanomboka tamin ny 02-Jolay-2020: Tsy notaterina ny endri-manavaka (lahy na vavy) sy ny taonan’ireo olona nodimandry
Misy fiantraikany amin’ny fahamarinan’ny tarehimarika sasany aseho etsy ambany ireo tsy fahampiam-baovao ireo
Tsy voalaza tamin’ny tatitra ofisialy ny faritra nisy ireo tranga sasany. Misy fiantraikany amin’ny fahamarinan’ny tarehimarika sasany aseho etsy ambany ireo tsy fahampiam-baovao ireo
Ny COVID-19 dia aretina vokatry ny coronavirus vaovao (SARS-CoV-2), izay nitranga voalohany tany Wuhan, Sina tamin’ny Novambra/Desambra 2019.
Ny fivezivezenan’ny mponina no nanafaingana ny fielin’ity valan’aretina ity eran’izao tontolo izao. Hatramin’ny volana Jolay 2020, olona mihoatra ny 10 tapitrisa mahery no efa voa ary olona mihoatra ny 5 hetsy no efa nodimandry.
Satria niroborobe be ny aretina tany Sina dia nampiato ny sidina rehetra nampifandray an’i Sina sy Madagasikara ny Governemanta Malagasy nanomboka ny 10 Febroary 2020. Ny sidina iraisam-pirenena rehetra kosa dia naato nanomboka ny 20-Martsa-2020.
Na izany aza, tamin’ny 20-Martsa-2020 no voamarina ny tranga voalohany tsimok’aretina COVID-19 teto Madagasikara. Olona telo tonga avy any Eoropa alohan’ny nanakatonana tanteraka ny seranam-paramanidina izy ireo.
Nametraka ny “amehana ara-pahasalamana” ny mpitondra fanjakana mba hamerana ny fivezivezena ao anatin’ny faritra sy ny fifaneraserana ara-paritra manerana ny Nosy. Efa nalefahana ny sasany tamin’ireo fepetra noraisina.
Nisy ny fitiliana natao indrindra ho an’ireo tranga nampiahiahy. Ny Institut Pasteur de Madagascar teto Antananarivo no nahazo alalana hanao fitiliana ny volana Janoary 2020 ary efa nahavita fitiliana mihoatra ny 14 000 hatreto. Telo volana taty aoriana, niampy telo ireo laboratoara afaka manao ny fitiliana ka isan;izany ny Center d’Infectiologie Charles Merieux, ny laboratoaran’ny hopitaly HJRA, ary ny Laboratoire d’Analyses Medicales de Madagascar (LA2M). Ireo laboratoara ireo no miaraka manome ny isan’ireo fitiliana isan’andro (salan’isa nandritra ny 5 andro) = 360.2
Hatramin’ny October 13 2020 Madagasikana dia nanamarina 16,754 tranga ao 23 faritra sy 236 nodimandry
Fitiliana: RT-PCR ( Real Time-Polymerase Chain Reaction) no anaran’ny fitiliana hanamarinana na mitondra ny tsimok’aretina ny olona na tsia. Mitady ny fisian’ny ny fitaovana fototarazon’ilay viriosy ao amin’ny vatan’olombelona. Io karazana fitiliana io dia ahafahan’ny mpahay siansa manamarina fa mitondra ny SARS-CoV-2 ary afaka mamindra ny otrik’aretina amin’ny olon-kafa ny olona iray amin’io fotoana io.
Tranga: Olona iray izay nanaovana fakana singa ka nahazoana valiny mihabo taorian’ny fitiliana RT-PCR nataon’ny iray tamin’ireo laboratoara nahazo fankatoavana
Salan’isa mikisaka: Kajy atao mba handravonana ny fiovan’ny tarehimarika isan’andro. Ohatra ny isan’ny tranga vaovao ny alahady dia fandravonana ny isan’ny tranga nandritra ny 5 andro (Alarobia hatramin’ny Alahady) na 7 andro (Alatsinainy hatramin’ny Alahady) mialoha. Mikisaka manaraka an’izay koa raha Alatsinainy sns. Izany no atao dia mba hanamorana ny fanombanana ny fironan’ilay famantarana ary manampy amin’ny fisorohana ny hetsika izay mety handiso ilay fironana. Ohatra, mety hiakatra na hihena tampoka ny fitiliana ao anatin’iray andro noho ny antony samihafa (Ohatra: Ny faran’ny herinandro).
Tahan’ny fihaboana: Mampiseho ny ampahan’ny fitiliana (isan-jato) izay nampiseho valiny mihabo. Ho an’ny Fikambanana Iraisam-pirenena momba ny Fahasalamana, ny tahan’ny fihaboana manodidina ny 3-12% dia mari-pamantarana fa ampy ny isan’ny fitiliana (reference). Mampiseho fa vitsy loatra ny fitiliana natao raha avo ny fihaboana (ohatra: mihoatra ny 12%) ary tsy ahafahana mamantatra ny tena isan’olona mitondra ilay tsimok’aretina marina
Taham-pahafatesana: Antotan’isan’ireo tranga voamarina sy mihabo matin’ny COVID-19 hatramin’ny daty voatondro
We simulated infection dates (n = 500) using the methods described here.
Expected change in daily cases were classified as:
For model estimates of Rt and cases, the darker shading shows the 50% credible intervals and the lighter shaded ribbon shows the 90% credible intervals.
Forecasts of Rt at low/zero case counts have wide credible intervals and low confidence.
There are a number of limitations and uncertainties in these methods, many of which are reviewed here.